Regimes

Every head-coaching tenure measured the same way. Record and scoring reach the whole franchise; opponent-adjusted SRS and EPA only exist from 1999 on, so earlier regimes show those as unavailable rather than zero.

full-time head coaches

Mike McDaniel

2022–2025

35-3351.5%

Point diff / game: +0.1
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +1.2
SRS: -0.76
EPA / play: +0.025

Playoffs 0–2 · 1585 points for, 1578 against

Brian Flores

2019–2021

24-2549.0%

Point diff / game: -3.1
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +2.8
SRS: -3.72
EPA / play: -0.049

Playoffs — · 1051 points for, 1205 against

Adam Gase

2016–2018

23-2547.9%

Point diff / game: -5.1
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +5.2
SRS: -5.83
EPA / play: -0.069

Playoffs 0–1 · 963 points for, 1206 against

Joe Philbin

2012–2015

24-2846.2%

Point diff / game: -1.7
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +0.2
SRS: -1.93
EPA / play: -0.035

Playoffs — · 1303 points for, 1414 against

Tony Sparano

2008–2011

29-3247.5%

Point diff / game: -0.7
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +0.3
SRS: +0.60
EPA / play: -0.004

Playoffs 0–1 · 1307 points for, 1353 against

Cam Cameron

2007

1-156.3%

Point diff / game: -10.6
Luck (wins vs Pyth): -2.8
SRS: -8.37
EPA / play: -0.078

Playoffs — · 267 points for, 437 against

Nick Saban

2005–2006

15-1746.9%

Point diff / game: -0.7
Luck (wins vs Pyth): -0.2
SRS: -0.04
EPA / play: -0.081

Playoffs — · 578 points for, 600 against

Dave Wannstedt

2000–2004

42-3157.5%

Point diff / game: +2.5
Luck (wins vs Pyth): -1.2
SRS: +3.42
EPA / play: -0.064

Playoffs 1–2 · 1631 points for, 1432 against

Jimmy Johnson

1996–1999

36-2856.3%

Point diff / game: +1.1
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +1.8
SRS: +1.89(1/4 seasons)
EPA / play: -0.114(1/4)

Playoffs 2–3 · 1325 points for, 1253 against

Don Shula

1970–1995

257-133-265.8%2× Super Bowl

Point diff / game: +5.0
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +7.9
SRS: not in era
EPA / play: not in era

Playoffs 17–14 · 9049 points for, 7093 against

George Wilson

1966–1969

15-39-228.6%

Point diff / game: -9.2
Luck (wins vs Pyth): +0.0
SRS: not in era
EPA / play: not in era

Playoffs — · 941 points for, 1454 against

Interim tenures

Kept separate — an interim coach inherits someone else's roster mid-season, and ranking them alongside full tenures says little.

Jim Bates3-4 · 2004
Todd Bowles2-1 · 2011
Dan Campbell5-7 · 2015

How these are scored

Scoring and differential are summed from the same season figures the Analytics page uses, so nothing here is restated independently. "Luck" adds up each season's gap between actual wins and Pythagorean expectation across the tenure — a large positive number means the regime won more than its scoring deserved.

SRS and EPA per play require play-by-play data, which begins in 1999. A regime entirely before then shows "not in era". One that straddles the boundary is averaged over only the seasons that have the metric, with that count shown so the sample is visible.